Redstate

A couple of the hypotheticals mentioned here are easier to call.  MD wouldn't lean Dem without Steele, it'd be "safe Dem".  VT is "likely Independent" at best, but probably "safe Dem".

Also, the +3 doesn't account for opportunities in Minnesota, North Dakota, Washington, and Rhode Island.  (I'd consider Laffey beating Chafee a pick-up.)

Here are some other details.  My ratings go Safe, Likely, Slight, Toss-up, Slight, Likely, Safe.

And my +3 calculation takes into account MN, ND, WA, and RI as well as other states not mentioned since nothing new has happened recently.  The last write-up I did was on April 30th.  It has more details about all of the competitive races.

If Laffey wins the seat that would be almost a pick-up.  However, if Laffey beats Chafee and loses to a Dem it still counts as a loss.  Personally, I think Toomey had a chance in PA; I don't think Laffey does in RI.  But I am persuadable.

As a Nebraskan, I don't see any way that Heineman beats Nelson. Red state or not, Nelson is very popular.

Thanks for the clarification.  Regarding a Laffey-Chafee race, a contested gubernatorial primary in 2002 was won with less than 19,000 votes.  Since then, statewide GOP registration has dropped while GOP registration in Cranston has risen.  With a contested Dem race, the vast majority of those who are not affiliated with a party will probably vote in their primary.  I'm not suggesting that the RI GOP is extremely conservative, but I would think that there are 35,000 people in the state who are fed up with Chafee's liberalism.  The question is how many of these people are willing to take a chance on Laffey and, of those, how many will turn out.  Those who hate him are probably more likely than those who can stomach him to do so.  

Personally, I think Laffey can win statewide.  He's no Tom Coburn (I am a big fan of Coburn), so it'll be tough for the Dems to portray him as one.  Look for Laffey's upset in this one to be the race we all remember for years to come.

My worry is that the voter ID numbers from 2004 still show 39% Dem, 16% Rep.  If those 16% get greedy by nominating a more "Republican" Republican, they still have to win over 75% of Independents to win.  It's good to hear the GOV race was close (was it Laffey who ran?) but I think SEN races are becoming more nationalized and polarized.  That will help us in TN, NE, FL, ND, and WV, but it would hurt in a Laffey vs. Dem contest in RI.  Can you link to some background on Laffey so I can read up on him.  Thanks.

But if he votes for obstruction (especially if some SC nominees get rejected becuase of it), we will have a real issue that can resonate.  I like Senator Nelson, but if he's going to stop the President's nominees from getting an up-or-down vote then he isn't the "independent Dem" he likes to portray himself as.

Stenberg came close, 51%-49%, in 2000.  And at the least we have Stenberg running again with a more polarized electorate.  Nelson is not in the clear.

The bit about Gen Franks reminds me of the early 90's when Gen Schwarzkopf was rumored to be a candidate for Govenor.  I'm not aware of anything that indicates Franks has any more interest in politics than Schwarzkopf.  

While Harris does have a bit of a lead in the polls, there is a significant amount of people who would like to see one of the presumed gubernatorial candidates (Tom Gallagher and before yesterday Charlie Crist) run.  Obviously neither Gallagher or Toni Jennings would have quite the buzz factor that Franks would, but both would be credible candidates.  

1. "Tommy Franks, the now retired U.S. Central Command chief who led U.S. troops in the 2003 Iraq war, has been on the speaking circuit."
   
2. "Mr. Franks was a featured speaker at last year's GOP convention in New York and was a frequent stump speaker on behalf of President Bush."
   
3. The seat is competitive.
   
4. He has talked with Rove about the possiblity who helped push Senator Martinez to run in 2004.

I don't know much about the Gen. Schwarzkopf story so you'll have to enlighten me on how close this parallel.  Gen. Franks is by no means definitely running, but all indications are that he is thinking about it.

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Quotes are from OpinionJournal's subscription Daily Journal which is why there is no link.

I had thought of point two, but I didn't consider it as evidence because arguably some of that was in his own interest; one would hardly expect him to be silent with Kerry criticizing our Afghanistan strategy.

Schwarzkopf spoke at the '92 Republican Convention. (Had to look that up).  

Point one also applied to Schwarzkopf.

I wasn't living in Florida at the time, but I would think that the Governor's race in '94 was at least as competitive as the pending Senate race.  After all, Jeb very nearly won it then.  (I grant however, that it may not have been conceived as all that competitive before then).

Point four is the heart of the story.  If Franks has approached Rove about it then it would be quite different from Scharzkopf's situation. My recollection of Schwarzkopf is that while everyone considered him to be a killer candidate and he had shown an interest in political outcomes, he didn't actually have an interest in being a candidate himself. If Franks has explicitly expressed interest, it is obviously a different story.

Of course, it would be something that few would know about (after all, at this point in the '04 Senate race everyone was thinking Foley and McCollum with Harris lurking (even though the Washington Post reported on Rove's courting Martinez in March '03)).

http://www.electlaffey.com/site/index.php

This will get you started.

With the specter of a change in the filibuster rule mounting, the Senate Democrats have now decided to use the senate 'privilege' of letting a lone Seantor put a 'hold' on a nomination, to continue to exercise their obstruction of any action that is either not originating with them or in agreement with their liberal orthodoxy.

John Bolton temorarily escaped the slings and arrows of the arrogant, bullying divas at the State Department yesterday. That was with no thanks from that poster child of exactly what a Republican Senator should not be - George Voinovich. Now John Bolton's nomination ahs been put on hold by Barabara Boxer.

It should be clear to Mr. Frist now that the only agenda that is going to get out of the Senate, with a vote, is the agenda of Harry Reid.

It would be better for the country, in spite of the cost, to admit that truth now, adjourn the Senate and get on with the 2006 Senate election campaign. Let that campaign be on the real issue - who decides things in the legislature of a democratic republic, the votes of a majority of Senators or a lone Senator with the "priviledge" to dictate, by themself, the course of the nation.

Adjourn the Senate now and let the campaign begin.  

Here in Wisconsin, Kohl is untouchable for as long as he wants to be.  He is the kind grandfather who everyone loves.  He is Herb the Bucks owner who sits with the fans.  No one can touch him.